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Tropical Depression GRACE


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS
TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... 
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  71.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  71.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  70.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N  73.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N  76.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N  79.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.1N  82.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.9N  85.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.6N  88.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 22.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  71.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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