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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  70.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  70.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  69.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N  72.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N  74.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N  77.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N  80.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N  83.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.6N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.6N  91.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N  96.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  70.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
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