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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GRACE.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  68.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  68.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  68.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N  70.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N  72.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N  75.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N  78.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N  81.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N  89.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N  93.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  68.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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