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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
SAMANA
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF 
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  66.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  66.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  65.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N  67.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N  69.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N  71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N  74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N  76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N  79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N  84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N  89.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  66.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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