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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF 
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, 
AND MONTSERRAT, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO SAMANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO
SAMANA
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS 
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  62.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  62.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N  64.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N  67.0W...NEAR PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N  69.1W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N  70.9W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N  73.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N  75.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.7N  81.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.6N  84.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  62.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
 
 
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