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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND FOR THE NORTH COAST
FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO
ENGANO
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
CABO ENGANO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  57.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  57.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  57.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.8N  60.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N  63.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N  66.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N  68.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N  70.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N  72.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N  77.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.4N  81.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  57.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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