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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SINT MAARTEN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE
AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  50.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.9N  54.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N  58.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N  61.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N  65.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N  67.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N  70.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N  74.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N  79.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  51.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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