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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL 
STORM WACHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR 
TONIGHT. 
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  49.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  49.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  48.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N  52.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.2N  55.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N  59.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N  63.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.4N  68.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N  73.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  49.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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