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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 2 9(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
KEY WEST FL 34 1 23(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 2(33) X(33)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 24(35) 2(37) X(37)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 4(34) X(34)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) 1(20)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) X(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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