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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
...FRED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to
Steinhatchee River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight.  A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is 
expected to weaken quickly after moving inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and 
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Through Monday...
 
Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is
anticipated.
 
Through Tuesday...
 
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
 
South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could 
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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