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Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 76.2 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) 
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn 
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the 
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of 
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida 
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday, and near the west coast of 
Florida on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of 
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From today into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.
 
By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in 
the watch area in Florida beginning tonight or early Saturday.  Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the 
southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through 
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern 
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of 
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from 
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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