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Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...FRED SLOWS DOWN OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred 
was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday.  A
turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday.  On
the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
 
By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night.  Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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