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Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...DISORGANIZED FRED OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was 
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 72.8 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) 
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward 
speed is expected during the next few days.  On the forecast track, 
the center of Fred is expected to be near the Turks and Caicos 
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, move near or north 
of the northern coast of central Cuba tonight and Friday, and near 
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow 
strengthening is expected tonight through the weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to 
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.
 
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are 
possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, 
and the southeastern Bahamas beginning later this morning. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across 
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next 
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and 
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your 
local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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