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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021
 
...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO 
RICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... 
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was 
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West.  Fred is 
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general 
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and 
continue for the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and 
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas 
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of 
the Dominican Republic later this morning.  Some weakening is likely 
thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.
 
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the 
warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the 
next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the 
Dominican Republic later this morning.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and 
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting 
portions of the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to 
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach 
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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