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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021
...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or
over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm
force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.