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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 61.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to continue passing near the 
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or 
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight,
and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
 
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next several hours.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin 
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic 
by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible 
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and 
northern Haiti beginning late Wednesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of 
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the 
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of 
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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