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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the 
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is 
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern 
Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin 
Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near 
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.  

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
 
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within 
the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of 
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the 
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions 
of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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