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BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number  38
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
 
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 76.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Pennsylvania, New
York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and portions of southern Maine.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 76.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through 
tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
 
Through Thursday night...
Across the Northeast from eastern Pennsylvania and central-eastern
New York into New England...1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated
maximum storm totals of 5 inches expected.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of the Northeast could lead to
considerable flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding
impacts.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
 
TORNADOES:
Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Pennsylvania, New
Jersey, and southern New York into southern New England.
  
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Hurley
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 41.5N  76.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 42.5N  74.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0000Z 43.4N  71.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1200Z 43.9N  68.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
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