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BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number  36
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062021
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
 
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WEST
VIRGINIA AND PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW YORK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF STATE COLLEGE PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect from West Virginia,
Maryland, and parts of Virginia, northward across Pennsylvania,
Upstate New York, and parts of Vermont.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph 
and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn 
east tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
 
Through Tonight...
Eastern Carolinas...additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated
maximum storm totals of 6 inches.
 
Through Thursday night...
Upper Ohio Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic States into New
England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals
of 6 inches expected.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and 
Northeast could lead to flash, urban, small stream and
isolated river flooding impacts.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
 
TORNADOES:
A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the inland
Mid-Atlantic region.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Carbin/Churchill
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 39.5N  80.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 12H  19/0000Z 41.4N  78.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/1200Z 42.4N  75.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 43.1N  72.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 43.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
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