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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.
 
The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
Florida Big Bend has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Fred will 
move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the 
southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the 
central Appalachians by early Wednesday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected, and Fred 
should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently 
reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with 
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. 

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the 
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum 
storm totals of 10 inches are expected. 

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with 
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts 
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic 
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river 
flooding impacts.  An increased risk of landslides exists across the 
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge 
Escarpment on Tuesday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with 
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 
with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
 
STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain 
elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. 
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service 
forecast office for additional information.
 
WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue
over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia,
and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, 
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of 
the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia.  The tornado 
threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the 
western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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