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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
...FRED MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion 
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western 
Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After 
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: 

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today…

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain 
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday…

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with 
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the 
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum 
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday…

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with 
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts 
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic 
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river 
flooding impacts.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible early this morning
over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late
morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward
into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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