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BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.  Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A motion toward
the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross
the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move
inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late
tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical
storm expected after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:
 
Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:
 
Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
 
Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.
 
From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.
 
Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.
 
From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts 
of the western Florida peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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