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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
...DISORGANIZED FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later 
today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was 
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) 
and this motion is expected to continue today.  A turn to the 
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by 
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west 
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the 
northern Gulf coast Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
 
Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida.  Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected.  Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.
 
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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