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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches
in Cuba.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and 
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional 
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west 
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A 
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general 
motion should continue through early Monday.  On the forecast 
track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north 
coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower 
Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast 
of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight.  After that, slow 
strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm 
again on Saturday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:
 
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
 
Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
 
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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