ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma,
and Holguin.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today.  Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north 
coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida 
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today.  After that, slow 
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm 
again tonight or Saturday.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations 
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb 
(29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
 
Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
 
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in 
Cuba through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the 
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning 
Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN