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Tropical Depression FRED (Text)


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
by Friday morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The depression is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is motion is expected
through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night
or Saturday.  On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along
or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be
near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening through Saturday, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again later tonight or early Friday. Fred is expected
to be a tropical storm as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.
 
By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night.  Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN

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