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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the
Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef,
including Florida Bay.
 
The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas.
 
The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph       
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Friday.  A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or
Saturday.  On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move
along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and
Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow
strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is
forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida
Keys and south Florida.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:
 
Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across 
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and 
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals 
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small 
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to 
isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night.  Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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