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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.
A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph       
(22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is 
expected for the next day or two.  A turn to the northwest is 
expected by Saturday.  On the forecast track, Fred is expected to 
move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north 
of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the 
Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.  Little 
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening 
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain 
tropical-storm strength during that time. 
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:
 
Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.
 
Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with
Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday,
3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning
later today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from 
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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