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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021
 
...FRED NEARING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico including Culebra and
Vieques, and for the U.S. Virgin Islands, is discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today
and continue for the next few days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later
today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central
Cuba on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola
later today.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:
 
Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.  Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.
 
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
late today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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