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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 62.2 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near 
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later 
this morning.  Some weakening is likely while the system interacts 
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the 
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches.  Heavy rainfall could 
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential 
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. 
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, 
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas 
beginning late Wednesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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