ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 60.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Culebra, and Vieques has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and
on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for northern Haiti from the
border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 
latitude 15.1 North, longitude 60.8 West. The system is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the 
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the 
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or 
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and 
Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two 
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm 
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
 
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles overnight.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico on Tuesday, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti beginning late
Wednesday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions
of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN