ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of France has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe and Martinique.
 
The government of Barbados has been issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along
the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands 
and Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward
and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti
border.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.2 North, longitude 59.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is 
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast 
track, the system is expected to move through a portion of the 
southern Leeward Islands tonight, pass near or over the U.S. 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and 
near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, 
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
 
Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles tonight, and are also possible within the
watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning
Tuesday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin
 
NNNN