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REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  84.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  84.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  84.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.3N  85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N  86.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N  87.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N  87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.1N  87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  84.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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