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Tropical Depression FRED


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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
IN CUBA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED.  ADDITIONAL 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST 
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  79.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  79.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  79.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N  82.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.4N  83.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N  84.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.8N  85.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.2N  86.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N  85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  79.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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