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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA AND HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
AND HOLGUIN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.  INTEREST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FRED.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  78.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  78.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  77.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N  79.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N  81.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N  82.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N  83.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.7N  84.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N  85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.0N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N  86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  78.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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