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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS 
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS 
AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  74.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  74.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  74.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N  76.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N  78.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.8N  79.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N  81.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N  82.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N  83.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.5N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  74.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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