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TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  66.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  66.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  66.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.6N  68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N  71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N  73.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N  76.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N  78.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.8N  79.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.5N  82.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.3N  84.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  66.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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