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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  63.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  63.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  63.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.3N  66.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.5N  68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.6N  71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.7N  73.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N  76.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N  78.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  63.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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