ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida 
Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern 
Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually 
decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, 
indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should 
continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken 
to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur 
on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into 
the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that 
Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on 
Wednesday near the central Appalachians.
 
Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt.  There is no change 
to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The 
cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed 
between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a 
weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new 
NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed 
dynamical model guidance.
 
Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains
to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during 
the next couple of days.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, 
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across 
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from 
western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of 
the week,  Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the 
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible 
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on 
Tuesday.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue
over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern
Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 31.2N  85.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1200Z 32.9N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0000Z 35.5N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 38.5N  81.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN