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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the
eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently
moving farther inland.  Observations from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt
just before landfall.  Assuming some weakening since crossing the
coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt.  Fairly rapid
weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the
cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by
tomorrow morning.  The official intensity forecast for the next day
or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance.
 
Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or
020/8 kt.  During the next day or two Fred should move, with
increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high
pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over
the east-central United states.  The official track forecast is
quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction,
HCCA.
 
Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains
over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during
the next couple of days.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across
portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle.  By the middle of
the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and
flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the
Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.  Landslides are possible
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on
Tuesday.
 
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline
within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue
to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of
the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern
Alabama.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 29.9N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0600Z 31.5N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1800Z 34.0N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 37.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/1800Z 39.5N  80.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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