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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this
morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO
and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the
circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level
winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from
the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993
mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled
off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the
Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly
moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is
possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is
likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time
remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is
similar to the LGEM guidance.
Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from
Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the
previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight
reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but
that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes,
the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9
kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level
subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a
weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of
the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is
expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is
just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most
recent multi-model consensus.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and
Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the Storm Surge Warning area.
3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and
will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions
of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND