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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this 
morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO 
and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the 
circulation.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level 
winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from 
the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 
mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled 
off.  The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the 
southeastern quadrant.

Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly 
moist mid-level atmosphere.  A little more strengthening is 
possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is 
likely to limit strengthening.  Also, the storm has little time 
remaining over water.  The latest official intensity forecast is 
similar to the LGEM guidance. 

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from 
Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the 
previous track.  It is not certain whether this is due to a slight 
reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but 
that is certainly a possibility.  Based on the most recent fixes, 
the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 
kt.  Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level 
subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a 
weak trough over the east-central United States.  A slight bend of 
the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is 
expected during the next couple of days.  The official forecast is 
just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most 
recent multi-model consensus.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small 
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.  
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy 
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central 
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.  
Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and 
Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.
 
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion in the Storm Surge Warning area. 
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and 
will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions 
of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern 
Alabama. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 29.2N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 30.5N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z 32.6N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 35.0N  84.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  18/1200Z 38.0N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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