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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall 
organization of the system has improved somewhat since this 
afternoon.  The low-level center is embedded near the western edge 
of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall 
increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center.  An 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been 
investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has 
fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial 
intensity of 45 kt.  The plane found a very small area of slightly 
stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but 
those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective 
cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall 
intensity.
 
Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion
should continue overnight.  The dynamical model guidance indicates
that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it
approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north-
northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the
system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue
until the system dissipates in a couple of days.  The dynamical
models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids
were essentially along the previous NHC track.  As a result, little
alteration was made to the previous official track forecast.
 
The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly 
vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance 
continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the 
next 12-18 hours.  As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the 
SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity 
models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at 
that time.  After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate 
over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA 
and IVCN consensus aids.
 
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast,
including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle
of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western
Carolinas.  By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland
toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact
the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
 
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 27.3N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 28.6N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 30.2N  86.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 32.3N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 34.4N  84.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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