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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon.  The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle.  A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.
 
After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9.  The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h.  A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates.  The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models 
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north 
motion after landfall.  The new NHC forecast track also is shifted 
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west 
of the various consensus models.
 
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall.  However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago.  Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward.  After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.
 
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas.  From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, 
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in 
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 26.8N  85.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 27.8N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 29.5N  86.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 31.3N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 33.3N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0600Z 35.8N  84.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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