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Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have
re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.  Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center
near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band.  The
Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along 
with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates 
near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center.  Based on these 
developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical 
Storm Fred a couple of hours ago.
 
The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process,
and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous
advisory position.  While the forecast guidance is basically
unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a
turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the
new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about
40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time.
Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida
Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening. 
 
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall.  The intensity guidance forecasts
gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity
forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 
45 kt.  After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as 
it moves into the Tennessee Valley.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of  
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend 
over an area well east of the center. 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, 
small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the 
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of  
Georgia, and the western Carolinas.  From Tuesday onward, heavy rain 
and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the 
Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and 
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of 
the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has 
been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow 
any advice given by local officials. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 26.1N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 27.4N  85.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 28.9N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 30.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 32.5N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/0000Z 34.7N  85.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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