Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Remnants of FRED

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
The remnants of Fred have been undergoing some noticeable changes 
early this morning, with one of those features being a curved band 
of deep convection having developed in the northeastern quadrant of 
the larger cyclonic envelope. A low-level jet (925-850 mb) was noted 
in the 0000 UTC upper-air air data and in the Key West VAD wind 
profile radar data late last night and early this morning. That 
speed maximum produced 2-hours worth of 34-kt and higher 10-meter 
winds at the Sand Key (SANF1) C-MAN station south of Key West, and 
that is the basis for the increasing the intensity to 35 kt for this 
advisory. That speed maximum is also likely responsible for the 
large increase in convection north of the Dry Tortugas, which also 
has helped to spin up a small mesovortex that passed over buoy 
42026 between 0500-0600 UTC, causing the pressure to decrease 3.6 mb 
in one hour. That small-scale feature is moving westward and could 
become the the low-level center farther to the north of the current 
alleged center within the next few hours.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/07 kt. The system is 
expected to move north-northwestward or northwestward today and 
tonight through a narrow weakness in the subtropical ridge located 
between 85W-88W longitude based on 0000Z upper-air data. The system 
is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern 
Gulf of coast and comes under the influence of a mid- to 
upper-level trough forecast to drop southward over the western Gulf 
of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast had to be shifted farther to 
the east of the previous advisory, and subsequent forecast tracks 
may have to be shifted even further east if a new center develops 
farther to the north or northeast as per what recent satellite and 
buoy data suggest. The official forecasts track lies a little to the 
left of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain marginally conducive for 
strengthening due to at least some modest southwesterly wind shear 
affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours. After landfall, Fred
is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the 
circulation should dissipate by around 96 hours.
1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico later today, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning 
Monday night.  A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for 
a portion of this area later this morning.
INIT  15/0900Z 24.4N  84.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 25.5N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  16/0600Z 27.0N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 28.5N  87.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 30.3N  87.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 32.5N  86.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 35.0N  85.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Stewart