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Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of
Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite
imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface 
observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little 
better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a 
well-defined center.  Therefore, the system has not regained 
tropical cyclone status yet.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt 
and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have 
reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours.  The 
C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but 
that site is elevated. 

The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since 
it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a 
highly uncertain 300/08 kt.  The disturbance is expected to begin a 
more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as 
it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the 
western Atlantic.  The system is forecast to turn northward on 
Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast.   Although the track 
guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there 
is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the 
center re-forms in the short term.  Overall there was some eastward 
shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged 
in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus 
aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is 
a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. 

The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast 
to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours.  This 
should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the 
system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday.  
However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is 
likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity 
forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours.  
After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the 
global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours. 
 
Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development.  Watches
are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern 
Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the 
day.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm 
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday.  Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area
early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 23.8N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 25.3N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  16/0000Z 26.8N  86.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 28.3N  87.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 29.7N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 31.4N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 33.1N  87.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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