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Tropical Storm FRED

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021
During the past several hours, the center of Fred has moved inland
over the Dominican Republic.  The storm continues to produce an
area of convection near and southeast of the center.  However, the
low-level circulation is losing some organization as it passes over
mountainous terrain.  There have been no observations near the
center recently, so the initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly
on weakening from the previous over water intensity.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/13.  Some erratic
motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the center moves
over the mountains of Hispaniola.  After reaching the water, the
cyclone is expected to moves west-northwestward on the south side
of the subtropical ridge through about 60 h.  After that, a
northwestward motion is expected through the end of the forecast
period as Fred moves toward a weakness in the ridge.  The track
guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF,
Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida
Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center
passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more
northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico.  The new forecast track
is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from
the previous NHC track.
Fred is expected to weaken to a depression over Hispaniola during
the next 12 h.  Once back over water, the cyclone is expected to be
in a moderate westerly shear environment through at least 60 h. Due
to that, and the uncertainty in how well organized the system
will be after crossing Hispaniola, the intensity forecast shows
only modest intensification during this time.  After that time, the
global models forecast that an upper-level trough over Florida
will gradually move to the north, with an large upper-level
anticyclone following near or to the southeast of Fred.  How close
this anticyclone gets to Fred will determine how much the shear
decreases while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and
the global models are not in great agreement on this.  The GFS and
Canadian keep the high far enough to the east to expose Fred to
southwesterly upper-level winds, while the UKMET and ECMWF move it
closer to the storm.  The intensity forecast will show a slightly
faster rate of strengthening after 72 h to match the guidance and
the previous forecast.  However, there is lower than normal
confidence in this part of the intensity forecast.
1. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this evening, and in
portions of Cuba by tonight.
2. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.
3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola through tonight.
4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall
could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible
rapid river rises across southern Florida. Interests throughout
Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the
INIT  11/2100Z 18.9N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  12/0600Z 19.8N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/1800Z 20.9N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  13/0600Z 21.9N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 22.9N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 23.9N  80.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 25.3N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 28.5N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
Forecaster Beven