ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DOVER DE 34 X 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
DOVER DE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
DANVILLE VA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
GREENSBORO NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ROCKY MT NC 34 5 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 34 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SURF CITY NC 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WILMINGTON NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FLORENCE SC 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
COLUMBIA SC 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LITTLE RIVER 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CHARLESTON SC 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: