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TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12)
ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA GA 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAVANNAH GA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
KINGS BAY GA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WAYCROSS GA 34 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
JACKSONVILLE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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