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BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW 
ENGLAND...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN 
MASSACHUSETTS.... 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long 
Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode 
Island. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts 
including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has 
lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical 
cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over 
southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 
71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an 
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the 
forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of 
southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move 
offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The 
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The 
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the 
weekend. 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow 
site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported 
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 
km/h).  An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts 
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80 
km/h).  A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the
Nantucket Airport.  NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a 
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is 
999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.
 
RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
 
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